Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
